Don't Try This at Home, Kids - I Am a Professional

Here is a report on a sportsbook bonus chase I made at Bowmans.  I wish I could write that it was a successful chase and that I made money.  I cannot.  I wish I could write that it was not my fault that I lost money.  I cannot write that either.  I wish I could write that I lost money because I made a careless error…a misclick…a typo.  But, the truth of the matter is that I just plain made some poor choices on this chase, and I want to chronicle them as a warning to others to “do as I say, not as I do”.

Here is the situation:  I deposited $3,350 at Bowmans for a 15%, $500 bonus (the maximum) incurring a 4X D+B rollover of $15,400.  When I started I had approximately $11K in Pinnacle, my homebook, and another $5-6K scattered about at other books, Neteller and some poker sites.  I had my self-imposed “1 X the rollover outside of the target book” rule covered, with a couple grand to spare. 

Bowmans offers monthly reloads to net losers.  They also have a reputation for disdaining scalpers.  With my sights on busting and reloading, I did not want to look like an obvious scalper.  I decided to make all of my initial bets $800 so that it appeared like my normal betting increment.  I could bust in 5 bets at $800 a throw, and that was my objective.  All my bets are scalped vs Pinnacle.

My first round of betting was on NCAAF.  It was the last weekend of the month and thoughts of busting out this weekend and being able to reload for the next weekend when it was a new month were dancing in my head.  With that in mind I opened multiple browser windows and headed to the lines.

I was somewhat dismayed at my first pass.  Bowmans was looking very square, and I was finding zero arbs, and not very many scalps that I would ordinarily take, either.  I waited about 20 minutes this Saturday morning and then ran through the lines again.  Still not looking too good.  I had to take my son to his little league game later that morning.  I would not be able to run the lines after 0845 until we were home at around 1400.  I would miss a big chunk of the games if I didn’t get some bets in before 0845.  At that point I made the conscious decision to take some larger than normal scalp losses in an attempt to bust out so that I could reload for the following weekend.  The thought of taking down a $500 bonus on two consecutive weekends was quite strong, and I succumbed to it.

I took the following lines:

-180/+175

-320/+310

-209/+200

-260/+250

-219/+210

In each case, I had the dog at Bowmans.  In each case I was going to absorb the full loss at Pinnacle, and no loss if the dog won.  I bet $800 on every bet except the last bet, where I only bet $650 as it was all I had left in the account.  All my Bowmans money was in play.

The only bet that did not go my way was the -180/+175 line.  All the other favorites won, and the money flowed into Pinnacle.  I took $112 in losses, 22% of the total bonus.  Distressingly, I had busted over only $1,650, as $800 at +175 puts $2200 back into the Bowmans account.  Still, I was just 3 bets from busting it on NFL Sunday.  Completely do-able.

Sunday’s NFL lines were not any better for scalping than Saturday’s NCAAF lines.  Sticking to my strategy of the day before I took the following lines:

-140/+136

-217/+210

-410/+385

I played the -140/+136 game backwards.  This was the Colts/Broncos game, and I took the Colts @ +136 at Pinnacle to win.  The -410/+385 game was Pittsburgh at Oakland, with Pittsburgh a heavy favorite.  This spread was quite horrible, but I let emotions interfere.  We are big Pittsburgh fans in my house.  As game time approached I was running through lines while my family prepared the living room with drinks and snacks to watch the game all afternoon.  I knew if I came down and announced I had money on the Steelers it would make them all happy.  So, I took this line.  To compound matters I decided to bet so that I broke even on a Steelers win and soaked up all the loss on a Raiders win.  I put $3,280 on the Steelers to win $800.  My $800 on the raiders would pay $3,080.  I was putting $200 at risk to bust out $800. 

Pittsburgh lost and I was out $200 and had moved over $3,000 back into Bowmans. 

I found decent lines on the first quarter and the spread for the late Sunday game, and bet them:

-114/+115 (yippee, an arb!)

-105/+102

Fortunately my prediction that the Colts were underestimated was true, and I moved $800 out of Bowmans.  The -217/+210 game went against me, as did my first quarter and spread bets on the late game.  My Bowmans balance was now just under $7,300, I had met about 40% of the WR, and I had pissed away $428 of the bonus.

Knowing I would have to bet more than the current amount in my Bowmans account to meet rollover, I still had dreams of a bust out and the potential to reload.  I didn’t get a bet in on the Monday night game, but Tuesday I got a -162/+160 NHL puckline.  It went against me and my Bowmans account swelled to almost $9,000.

Wednesday the NBA season opened and to my glee the lines were HOPPING all over the place hours before game time.  Despite that I could only manage the following bets:

-110/+108

-186/+180

-210/+200

All three went the wrong way.  All three were set up to take the loss only if they went the wrong way.  I had also increased my bet size to $1,000.  I was now sitting on nearly $13,500 in Bowmans.  I had met only about 60% of the WR and was sitting on $518 in losses – $18 in the red.  I also now had just about equal amounts of reserve cash and WR left.  I could not risk any more moneyline bets where I took the dog at Bowmans.  All dreams of a bustout were long gone.  I was now focused on getting out of this book as soon as possible so I could move to another book and bonus.  I only cared which way the money flowed because I needed to make rollover and I was getting short on bankroll.  I was also concerned with the cashout from Bowmans, so I was still hoping to bust money out of there and over to Pinnacle.

The following Saturday I was able to get the following:

-110/+104

-110/+105

-114/+110

-110/+107

I was splitting the losses between books on all of these and went 2-for-2.  This gave me some breathing room on bankroll.  I only needed to make 2 more bets on NFL Sunday and I was done. 

I was in Pittsburgh, and had tickets to the Pittsburgh/Denver game.   I was stunned to see on Saturday night that the Broncos M/L was +136 at Bowmans.  How could a 5-2 team be a dog to a 2-5 team?  Surely this line would move toward Denver as game time approached.  I put $1,000 on the M/L at Bowmans.  When the line moved the next day, I would put the bet on the Steelers at Pinney for a nice arb.  What I failed to consider was that we were spending the day with family before the game and then heading for the stadium.  I would not be near my computer to place the Steelers bet after 0830 the next morning.

At 0830 the next morning the line had, in fact, shifted.  The Broncos were now getting +146 and the Steelers were getting -154.  The Steelers are far more of a public team than I had imagined.  I briefly considered not covering, but I couldn’t bring myself to leave $1,000 knowingly uncovered.  Irritation at my poor planning and crummy run of luck talked me into taking the whole loss only if the Steelers lost.  $1,540 on the Steelers to win $1,000. 

I still needed to get another $1,000 in on another game.  I found a -110/+112 and placed my bet at Pinnacle on the +112 line.  The line at Bowmans dropped to -130 before I got my bet in.  20 points in 30 seconds.  When it rains it pours.  I set the bet to split the loss evenly between books, explained to my wife what all the yelling was about and headed out for the day.  At least I was done wagering at Bowmans.

Both of those bets broke the wrong way. 

My Bowmans balance was $15,832.  Hard to imagine I had been just one bet away from a bust out on the first day of the chase.  My combination of fancy play (playing for a line move), team loyalty (-410/+385), more team loyalty (taking the whole loss on the Steelers twice), poor technique (placing the bet at Pinnacle first), and general impatience cost me $783 on a $500 chase.  So, I am out $283 total, but I learned quite a lot from this experience.  Consider it tuition…and something to write about! 

Bowmans couldn’t be more burnt, but they cashed me out promptly, so BRING ON THE NEXT BOOK!